Downgrading of the US national debt, as well as a mega-database from the Ministry of Statistics / Habr

Downgrading of the US national debt, as well as a mega-database from the Ministry of Statistics / Habr

Almost all the most important and interesting financial news in Russia and the world in a week: the dollar has already reached 96 rubles, the digital ruble has become popular with its logo, Uber has made any money for the first time in history, and investors are suing each other for using the Moon-emoji on Twitter ( sorry, in X!).

Financial news from Russia, unfortunately, mostly does not correspond to the spirit of Habra. So you can read the full text version of this news release here, or watch the video.

The ruble continues to fall

On Friday, the dollar rate on the Moscow Exchange reached 96 rubles – the last time it was at this level was in March 2022.

TradingView: by the way, the maximum rate of the dollar fell on March 9, 2022, at the level of 120.7 rubles.

Looking at what is happening, the Ministry of Finance decided to temporarily abandon the “budget rule”, which mandates that oil and gas revenues be spent on the purchase of foreign currency – which would put additional pressure on the weakening of the ruble. Instead, the “extra” money will go directly to finance the budget deficit.

Meanwhile, the price index of Mosbourge shares closed on Friday at a level slightly higher than in the “calm” times of February 22, 2022. However, if you count for the same period in dollars, then you still get a drop of about 17%…

A digital ruble in the form of a Pokeball

While the regular ruble is getting worse, the Bank of Russia continues to promote its digital doppelganger: last week, the Central Bank rolled out the logo of the digital ruble, enjoy!

In the picture, one of the versions of the digital ruble logo is presented by the CPU itself, the other is promoted by IA “Panorama” with the slogan “symbolizes wide opportunities” (try to guess which one)

At the same time, tariffs for the use of digital rubles were announced: ordinary citizens will be able to move them back and forth in their wallets for free, legal entities will be charged 15 rubles each. for translation, and businesses will be charged 0.3% during the sale of goods and services for digital rubles (but a little more than 1,500 rubles per transaction).

One database to rule them all

Forbes writes that the Ministry of Statistics is already starting to integrate all information about Russians into a single mega-database. The Ministry of Internal Affairs already automatically transmits to the State Service information about the place of residence of citizens, their vehicles and road accidents, about issued passports, and other interesting big data. From 2024, FSVP will also be connected to the transfer of information according to the schedule.

I think – it remains to somehow screw digital rubles to this trump database in a cunning way. And then we will definitely live in a bright future of general prosperity and healing cyberpunk!

This grandfather is already clearly ready (perhaps he is just scanning his data on State Services right at the moment of the photo)

The main thing is that copies of this state database do not begin to be sold on the dark net at 100k rubles per piece. And the other day Litres hacked and leaked information about two million “Russians who read the most” – but how come Comrade Major also sticks his mouse in some link with a Trojan?

A retired train driver who couldn’t make it

RANHiGS published a work evaluating the results of the reform of the pension system of the Russian Federation (remember – there was such an attempt to introduce a accumulative pension 20 years ago?). The results came out, well, so-so…

Over the 16 years from 2005 to 2020, NPFs (non-state pension funds, into which “accumulated” pensions flowed shortly before the freeze) earned 8% per annum for their clients, the state VEB’s result was even worse – 7.3%. Taking into account the fact that the average inflation during the same period amounted to 7.8% per annum – it is safe to say that the pensioners who saved were able to earn almost nothing during this time.

The retirement weekend of 2040 is looking at the graph of the profitability of their retirement account in the NPF (I see it this way)

At the same time, the index of total profitability of the Mosbourzhia increased more than 10 times during the same period and gave a yield at the level of 15.7% per annum (twice as high!). How did funds manage to perform so abhorrently with such an impressive stock market rally?

Well, for one thing, they certainly didn’t forget to pocket the “best management” commission every year (the authors of the study poignantly estimate the lag behind passive indexes due to attempts at active management at 2.3% per year – and that’s before deducting commissions!). Secondly, the state, with the help of its skillful regulation, constantly prevented the NPF from investing pension money in shares – so they mostly invested in “safer” bonds.

It would be funny if it wasn’t so sad.

2 out of 3 leading dog breeders doubted the risklessness of US commitments

Loud whistling around raising the US national debt ceiling this year did not go unnoticed: Fitch, one of the world’s three largest rating agencies, downgraded the long-term US debt from the maximum AAA to a slightly lower maximum AA+.

Biden hastened to declare (through his press secretary) that, basically, “you’re all lying”, America is fundamentally stronger than ever, and all these downgrades of yours are stupidly contrary to reality

The last time the S&P agency pulled the same trick in 2011 – and since then it has not raised the rating back. By the way, the debate surrounding raising the national debt ceiling also became a trigger at that time. Interestingly, that time the downgrade counterintuitively led to an increase in the prices of American bonds: investors panicked a little and decided to transfer their capital from stocks to less risky assets – which, as before, were US Treasuries, lol. This time there were no major market upheavals at all.

In short, at the moment, only rating experts from Moody’s continue to firmly believe in the maximum AAA reliability of government bonds – we are waiting for them to lose their nerve as well… So far, they have only reacted by slapping the pre-default rating of Niger, where a new coup d’état

Finally, it was possible to make money on a taxi

For the first time in its history, Uber managed to earn a profit for a quarter in the amount of $326 million. However, over the previous 10 years, it has accumulated more than $30 billion in investor money.

What do you think of the picture of the financial success of a “super-startup” with a capitalization under $90 billion?

Are mass emoji landings just around the corner?

In the last few news releases, we’ve been discussing the intrusion of cringe into the legal realm: first, a Canadian court equated emojis to a legally binding signature under an agreement, then a British regulator announced that it was ready to prosecute particularly outrageous crypto-memes. And now a new height has been taken: in the US, investors have filed a lawsuit for manipulation of the stock market with the help of an emoji with the image of a smiling moon.

The canvas is as follows: there is a fairly well-known activist investor Ryan Cohen, who likes to invest in so-called “meme stocks” (papers that are hyped by retail investors on all sorts of Reddits). That’s what they say in the lawsuit – like, “bought shares of the pre-bankrupt company Bed, Bath & Beyond and insidiously began pumping it up by posting 🌝 on Twitter.”

And the tweet itself from the lawsuit looks completely innocent (it’s just a reply to the news from CNBC), but when Ryan Cohen ended his emoji with the moon – he was actually sending “hidden signals” to the hamsters from Reddit on the topic “the stock is going to the moon , BUY BUY BUY !!!»

Do you think this is a normal emoticon? Actually, no – it’s a criminal moon emoji! (Look closely with a magnifying glass – you can barely see specific specks there)

Indeed, we live in interesting times…

The owners of Tether are doing everything right

Tether continues to shovel money from investing the reserves of the largest stablecoin USDT – in the 2nd quarter of this year, the profit amounted to $850 million. Meanwhile, Forbes named the four owners of the company as dollar billionaires. No bad!

Who… who trades crypto at the bottom of the continent?

Binance is currently being prosecuted by US regulators for providing services to Americans by circumventing strict local regulations. Meanwhile, in China, all this crypto of yours is generally prohibited, and Binance does not even have an official legal entity there (unlike in the same States) – but, as the Wall Street Journal writes, this does not prevent Binance from conducting as much as 20% of all transactions in this country of its turnover in crypto-making.

I wonder what will happen if China pursues Changpeng Zhao with the same fervor that the US is doing now?


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